Yanbu National Petrochemical (TADAWUL:2290) Could Be At Risk Of Shrinking As A Company

What financial metrics can indicate to us that a company is maturing or even in decline? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. So after glancing at the trends within Yanbu National Petrochemical (TADAWUL:2290), we weren't too hopeful.

Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Yanbu National Petrochemical:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.027 = ر.س408m ÷ (ر.س17b - ر.س1.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

Thus, Yanbu National Petrochemical has an ROCE of 2.7%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Chemicals industry average of 8.2%.

See our latest analysis for Yanbu National Petrochemical

In the above chart we have measured Yanbu National Petrochemical's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What Does the ROCE Trend For Yanbu National Petrochemical Tell Us?

There is reason to be cautious about Yanbu National Petrochemical, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 14%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Yanbu National Petrochemical to turn into a multi-bagger.

The Bottom Line

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. It should come as no surprise then that the stock has fallen 23% over the last five years, so it looks like investors are recognizing these changes. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Yanbu National Petrochemical does come with some risks though, we found 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is a bit unpleasant...

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.