Is The National Agricultural Development Company's (TADAWUL:6010) Recent Price Movement Underpinned By Its Weak Fundamentals?

It is hard to get excited after looking at National Agricultural Development's (TADAWUL:6010) recent performance, when its stock has declined 7.6% over the past three months. It seems that the market might have completely ignored the positive aspects of the company's fundamentals and decided to weigh-in more on the negative aspects. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. In this article, we decided to focus on National Agricultural Development's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for National Agricultural Development

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for National Agricultural Development is:

2.9% = ر.س45m ÷ ر.س1.5b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every SAR1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of SAR0.03.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of National Agricultural Development's Earnings Growth And 2.9% ROE

It is hard to argue that National Agricultural Development's ROE is much good in and of itself. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 12%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. For this reason, National Agricultural Development's five year net income decline of 38% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

As a next step, we compared National Agricultural Development's performance with the industry and found thatNational Agricultural Development's performance is depressing even when compared with the industry, which has shrunk its earnings at a rate of 26% in the same period, which is a slower than the company.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for 6010? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is National Agricultural Development Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

National Agricultural Development doesn't pay any dividend, meaning that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business, which doesn't explain why the company's earnings have shrunk if it is retaining all of its profits. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by National Agricultural Development can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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