Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Public Joint-stock Company TNS energo Mari El (MCX:MISB) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for TNS energo Mari El
What Is TNS energo Mari El's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2020 TNS energo Mari El had ₽966.3m of debt, an increase on ₽901.5m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₽300.9m, its net debt is less, at about ₽665.5m.
How Healthy Is TNS energo Mari El's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that TNS energo Mari El had liabilities of ₽1.66b due within a year, and liabilities of ₽250.0m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had ₽300.9m in cash and ₽843.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₽767.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit isn't so bad because TNS energo Mari El is worth ₽1.71b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
TNS energo Mari El shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (5.7), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 0.60 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. However, the silver lining was that TNS energo Mari El achieved a positive EBIT of ₽62m in the last twelve months, an improvement on the prior year's loss. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since TNS energo Mari El will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it is important to check how much of its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) converts to actual free cash flow. Over the last year, TNS energo Mari El actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash generation warms our hearts like a puppy in a bumblebee suit.
Our View
We weren't impressed with TNS energo Mari El's net debt to EBITDA, and its interest cover made us cautious. But like a ballerina ending on a perfect pirouette, it has not trouble converting EBIT to free cash flow. It's also worth noting that TNS energo Mari El is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about TNS energo Mari El's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example TNS energo Mari El has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are a bit concerning) we think you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About MISX:MISB
TNS energo Mari El
Public Joint-stock Company TNS energo Mari El supplies electricity in the Republic of Mari El.
Outstanding track record with flawless balance sheet.