Calculating The Fair Value Of Teixeira Duarte, S.A. (ELI:TDSA)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for Teixeira Duarte is €0.12 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €0.12 suggests Teixeira Duarte is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Industry average discount to fair value of 24% suggests Teixeira Duarte's peers are currently trading at a higher discount

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Teixeira Duarte, S.A. (ELI:TDSA) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

View our latest analysis for Teixeira Duarte

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€9.23m	€7.87m	€7.10m	€6.64m	€6.37m	€6.22m	€6.14m	€6.11m	€6.12m	€6.16m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -21.56%	Est @ -14.66%	Est @ -9.82%	Est @ -6.44%	Est @ -4.07%	Est @ -2.41%	Est @ -1.25%	Est @ -0.44%	Est @ 0.13%	Est @ 0.53%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 14%	€8.1	€6.0	€4.8	€3.9	€3.3	€2.8	€2.4	€2.1	€1.9	€1.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €37m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €6.2m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (14%– 1.5%) = €49m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €49m÷ ( 1 + 14%)¹⁰= €13m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €50m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €0.1, the company appears about fair value at a 2.6% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Teixeira Duarte as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 2.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Teixeira Duarte, there are three additional factors you should look at:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 4 warning signs for Teixeira Duarte (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Portuguese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com