Is Cyfrowy Polsat (WSE:CPS) A Risky Investment?

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. (WSE:CPS) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Cyfrowy Polsat

What Is Cyfrowy Polsat's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of June 2023, Cyfrowy Polsat had zł13.8b of debt, up from zł10.4b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has zł3.47b in cash leading to net debt of about zł10.3b.

How Healthy Is Cyfrowy Polsat's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Cyfrowy Polsat had liabilities of zł5.62b falling due within a year, and liabilities of zł13.2b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of zł3.47b and zł2.97b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling zł12.4b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of zł8.28b, we think shareholders really should watch Cyfrowy Polsat's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While we wouldn't worry about Cyfrowy Polsat's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.5, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.4 times is a sign of high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Another concern for investors might be that Cyfrowy Polsat's EBIT fell 18% in the last year. If things keep going like that, handling the debt will about as easy as bundling an angry house cat into its travel box. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Cyfrowy Polsat can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Cyfrowy Polsat recorded free cash flow worth 57% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

To be frank both Cyfrowy Polsat's level of total liabilities and its track record of covering its interest expense with its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Cyfrowy Polsat has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Cyfrowy Polsat (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.