Orlen S.A. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its yearly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at zł297b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 16%, coming in at just zł6.87 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Orlen

After the latest results, the consensus from Orlen's eight analysts is for revenues of zł290.8b in 2025, which would reflect a small 2.1% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 85% to zł12.74. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł309.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł12.13 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

There's been no real change to the average price target of zł67.22, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Orlen at zł85.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at zł58.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 31% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that Orlen's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Orlen following these results. Unfortunately they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our analysts estimates suggest that Orlen is still expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Orlen going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Orlen that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.