Stock Analysis

Mirbud (WSE:MRB) Is Growing Earnings But Are They A Good Guide?

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WSE:MRB
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Statistically speaking, it is less risky to invest in profitable companies than in unprofitable ones. Having said that, sometimes statutory profit levels are not a good guide to ongoing profitability, because some short term one-off factor has impacted profit levels. In this article, we'll look at how useful this year's statutory profit is, when analysing Mirbud (WSE:MRB).

While Mirbud was able to generate revenue of zł1.08b in the last twelve months, we think its profit result of zł37.4m was more important. In the chart below, you can see that its profit and revenue have both grown over the last three years.

Check out our latest analysis for Mirbud

earnings-and-revenue-history
WSE:MRB Earnings and Revenue History December 18th 2020

Not all profits are equal, and we can learn more about the nature of a company's past profitability by diving deeper into the financial statements. So today we'll look at what Mirbud's cashflow tells us about the quality of its earnings. Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Mirbud.

Zooming In On Mirbud's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to September 2020, Mirbud recorded an accrual ratio of -0.11. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of zł104m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of zł37.4m. Mirbud's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

Our Take On Mirbud's Profit Performance

Mirbud's accrual ratio is solid, and indicates strong free cash flow, as we discussed, above. Because of this, we think Mirbud's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Mirbud you should know about.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Mirbud's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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