Assessing Vector (NZSE:VCT) Valuation After Solid Electricity Growth And Softer Gas Metrics

What the latest operating update tells you about Vector

Vector (NZSE:VCT) released unaudited operating results for the nine months to 31 March 2026. The update highlighted higher electricity customers, more new electricity connections and greater electricity volume distributed, alongside slightly softer gas distribution metrics.

See our latest analysis for Vector.

Set against the latest operating update, Vector’s share price has had a modest uplift recently, with a 30 day share price return of 3.79%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 27.75% reflects stronger gains over a longer period.

If this utilities news has you thinking about the broader energy grid theme, it can be useful to compare Vector with other power infrastructure names using our 34 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks

With Vector trading at NZ$4.93, sitting close to the NZ$4.98 analyst price target but at an estimated 21% discount to intrinsic value, should you expect further upside from here or treat the current price as already reflecting its outlook?

Most Popular Narrative: 1% Undervalued

Vector’s most followed valuation narrative pegs fair value at about NZ$4.98, sitting just above the last close of NZ$4.93 and framing a tight valuation gap.

Higher expected long-term electricity demand from Auckland's ongoing urban growth and accelerating electrification (including EV adoption) is likely to drive steady growth in regulated asset base, supporting sustainable increases in regulated revenues.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that fair value call? The narrative leans on compounded revenue gains, fatter margins and a future earnings multiple that has to compress meaningfully.

These projections are all discounted back using a 7.27% rate, so every assumption about revenue, earnings and valuation multiples feeds straight into that NZ$4.98 figure. If you want to stress test those inputs against your own view on Auckland growth, regulation and Vector’s earnings mix, it helps to go through the full set of narrative assumptions in detail.

Result: Fair Value of NZ$4.98 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are clear pressure points, including structural uncertainty in gas distribution and the high ongoing capex burden, that could challenge the current fair value narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Vector narrative.

Next Steps

With mixed signals across Vector’s outlook, are you comfortable relying on the headline view, or do you want to pressure test it yourself quickly using our 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs?

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If Vector has caught your attention, do not stop there. Use the screener tools to spot other opportunities that could fit your style and goals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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