Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Genesis Energy Limited (NZSE:GNE) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Genesis Energy
What Is Genesis Energy's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 Genesis Energy had debt of NZ$1.40b, up from NZ$1.33b in one year. However, it does have NZ$105.6m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about NZ$1.30b.
How Healthy Is Genesis Energy's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Genesis Energy had liabilities of NZ$694.7m falling due within a year, and liabilities of NZ$2.20b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had NZ$105.6m in cash and NZ$251.1m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by NZ$2.54b.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of NZ$2.73b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Genesis Energy has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.1 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 3.8 times. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Fortunately, Genesis Energy grew its EBIT by 6.1% in the last year, slowly shrinking its debt relative to earnings. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Genesis Energy can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Genesis Energy actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. There's nothing better than incoming cash when it comes to staying in your lenders' good graces.
Our View
On our analysis Genesis Energy's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. It's also worth noting that Genesis Energy is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Genesis Energy's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example Genesis Energy has 3 warning signs (and 2 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NZSE:GNE
Genesis Energy
Generates, trades in, and sells electricity to residential and business customers in New Zealand.
Mediocre balance sheet second-rate dividend payer.
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