If You Had Bought TIL Logistics Group's (NZSE:TLL) Shares Three Years Ago You Would Be Down 50%

TIL Logistics Group Limited (NZSE:TLL) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 59% in the last quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 50% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

View our latest analysis for TIL Logistics Group

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

TIL Logistics Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 34% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 20% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in. With a P/E ratio of 48.13, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

This free interactive report on TIL Logistics Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

Investors should note that there's a difference between TIL Logistics Group's total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that TIL Logistics Group's TSR, which was a 47% drop over the last 3 years, was not as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

TIL Logistics Group shareholders are down 2.6% for the year, but the broader market is up 12%. Of course the long term matters more than the short term, and even great stocks will sometimes have a poor year. Unfortunately, the longer term story isn't pretty, with investment losses running at 14% per year over three years. We'd need clear signs of growth in the underlying business before we could muster much enthusiasm for this one. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for TIL Logistics Group (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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