Mainfreight Valuation

Is MFT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MFT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MFT (NZ$69) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$50.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MFT is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MFT?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MFT key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA13.3x
PEG Ratio2.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MFT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MFT vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.4x
FRW Freightways Group
21.6x11.3%NZ$1.5b
POT Port of Tauranga
35.8x9.9%NZ$3.6b
AIA Auckland International Airport
77.9x19.0%NZ$12.2b
AIR Air New Zealand
6.2x5.5%NZ$2.0b
MFT Mainfreight
20.8x8.8%NZ$6.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MFT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (35.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MFT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.9%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.9%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MFT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (16.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MFT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MFT PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MFT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MFT forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$69.00
NZ$78.51
+13.8%
4.9%NZ$82.75NZ$71.50n/a5
Mar ’25NZ$68.00
NZ$75.01
+10.3%
6.8%NZ$82.75NZ$68.00n/a5
Feb ’25NZ$71.45
NZ$74.26
+3.9%
5.5%NZ$79.00NZ$68.00n/a5
Jan ’25NZ$69.30
NZ$73.06
+5.4%
4.6%NZ$78.00NZ$68.00n/a5
Dec ’24NZ$67.50
NZ$73.06
+8.2%
4.6%NZ$78.00NZ$68.00n/a5
Nov ’24NZ$58.35
NZ$74.59
+27.8%
8.5%NZ$81.00NZ$62.45n/a5
Oct ’24NZ$65.18
NZ$77.10
+18.3%
4.6%NZ$81.00NZ$71.50n/a5
Sep ’24NZ$66.66
NZ$77.10
+15.7%
4.6%NZ$81.00NZ$71.50n/a5
Aug ’24NZ$67.85
NZ$77.10
+13.6%
4.6%NZ$81.00NZ$71.50n/a5
Jul ’24NZ$72.00
NZ$89.12
+23.8%
13.0%NZ$111.59NZ$81.00n/a5
Jun ’24NZ$69.48
NZ$89.12
+28.3%
13.0%NZ$111.59NZ$81.00n/a5
May ’24NZ$72.15
NZ$91.24
+26.5%
16.1%NZ$120.22NZ$80.00n/a5
Apr ’24NZ$70.01
NZ$91.51
+30.7%
16.6%NZ$121.57NZ$80.00n/a5
Mar ’24NZ$72.20
NZ$92.71
+28.4%
16.0%NZ$121.57NZ$80.00NZ$68.005
Feb ’24NZ$72.30
NZ$95.71
+32.4%
14.6%NZ$122.55NZ$85.00NZ$71.455
Jan ’24NZ$67.50
NZ$95.71
+41.8%
14.6%NZ$122.55NZ$85.00NZ$69.305
Dec ’23NZ$70.50
NZ$95.71
+35.8%
14.6%NZ$122.55NZ$85.00NZ$67.505
Nov ’23NZ$74.50
NZ$97.47
+30.8%
15.1%NZ$122.33NZ$84.00NZ$58.355
Oct ’23NZ$67.40
NZ$96.27
+42.8%
15.5%NZ$122.33NZ$85.00NZ$65.185
Sep ’23NZ$74.85
NZ$96.27
+28.6%
15.5%NZ$122.33NZ$85.00NZ$66.665
Aug ’23NZ$76.42
NZ$96.27
+26.0%
15.5%NZ$122.33NZ$85.00NZ$67.855
Jul ’23NZ$69.00
NZ$96.19
+39.4%
17.5%NZ$125.93NZ$82.00NZ$72.005
Jun ’23NZ$77.99
NZ$96.19
+23.3%
17.5%NZ$125.93NZ$82.00NZ$69.485
May ’23NZ$81.30
NZ$103.92
+27.8%
16.4%NZ$135.58NZ$87.00NZ$72.155
Apr ’23NZ$83.25
NZ$104.15
+25.1%
17.5%NZ$135.58NZ$91.00NZ$70.014
Mar ’23NZ$81.02
NZ$104.15
+28.5%
17.5%NZ$135.58NZ$91.00NZ$72.204

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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