Mainfreight Valuation
Is MFT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MFT?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is MFT's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a Ratio | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | NZ$6.95b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.3x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 10.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 5.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does MFT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 51.3x | ||
FRW Freightways Group | 21.7x | 12.1% | NZ$1.6b |
POT Port of Tauranga | 35.3x | 6.5% | NZ$4.3b |
AIA Auckland International Airport | 144.2x | 34.0% | NZ$12.6b |
598 Sinotrans | 4.2x | 1.1% | HK$32.2b |
MFT Mainfreight | 16.4x | 3.2% | NZ$6.9b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MFT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the peer average (51.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does MFT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MFT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (13.1x)
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MFT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 16.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 22.4x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MFT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of MFT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: MFT (NZ$69.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$44.35)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MFT is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | NZ$69.30 | NZ$89.12 +28.6% | 13.0% | NZ$111.59 | NZ$81.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’24 | NZ$69.48 | NZ$89.12 +28.3% | 13.0% | NZ$111.59 | NZ$81.00 | n/a | 5 |
| May ’24 | NZ$72.15 | NZ$91.24 +26.5% | 16.1% | NZ$120.22 | NZ$80.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Apr ’24 | NZ$70.01 | NZ$91.51 +30.7% | 16.6% | NZ$121.57 | NZ$80.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Mar ’24 | NZ$72.20 | NZ$92.71 +28.4% | 16.0% | NZ$121.57 | NZ$80.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | NZ$72.30 | NZ$95.71 +32.4% | 14.6% | NZ$122.55 | NZ$85.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | NZ$67.50 | NZ$95.71 +41.8% | 14.6% | NZ$122.55 | NZ$85.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Dec ’23 | NZ$70.50 | NZ$95.71 +35.8% | 14.6% | NZ$122.55 | NZ$85.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Nov ’23 | NZ$74.50 | NZ$97.47 +30.8% | 15.1% | NZ$122.33 | NZ$84.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Oct ’23 | NZ$67.40 | NZ$96.27 +42.8% | 15.5% | NZ$122.33 | NZ$85.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Sep ’23 | NZ$74.85 | NZ$96.27 +28.6% | 15.5% | NZ$122.33 | NZ$85.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Aug ’23 | NZ$76.42 | NZ$96.27 +26.0% | 15.5% | NZ$122.33 | NZ$85.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jul ’23 | NZ$69.00 | NZ$96.19 +39.4% | 17.5% | NZ$125.93 | NZ$82.00 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’23 | NZ$77.99 | NZ$96.19 +23.3% | 17.5% | NZ$125.93 | NZ$82.00 | NZ$69.48 | 5 |
| May ’23 | NZ$81.30 | NZ$103.92 +27.8% | 16.4% | NZ$135.58 | NZ$87.00 | NZ$72.15 | 5 |
| Apr ’23 | NZ$83.25 | NZ$104.15 +25.1% | 17.5% | NZ$135.58 | NZ$91.00 | NZ$70.01 | 4 |
| Mar ’23 | NZ$81.02 | NZ$104.15 +28.5% | 17.5% | NZ$135.58 | NZ$91.00 | NZ$72.20 | 4 |
| Feb ’23 | NZ$84.85 | NZ$102.80 +21.2% | 11.8% | NZ$127.00 | NZ$95.00 | NZ$72.30 | 5 |
| Jan ’23 | NZ$93.90 | NZ$104.25 +11.0% | 12.6% | NZ$127.00 | NZ$95.00 | NZ$67.50 | 4 |
| Dec ’22 | NZ$91.00 | NZ$104.25 +14.6% | 12.6% | NZ$127.00 | NZ$95.00 | NZ$70.50 | 4 |
| Nov ’22 | NZ$88.00 | NZ$97.13 +10.4% | 6.7% | NZ$107.50 | NZ$90.00 | NZ$74.50 | 4 |
| Oct ’22 | NZ$95.90 | NZ$96.03 +0.1% | 7.5% | NZ$107.50 | NZ$89.60 | NZ$67.40 | 4 |
| Sep ’22 | NZ$98.52 | NZ$91.73 -6.9% | 5.2% | NZ$97.00 | NZ$85.00 | NZ$74.85 | 4 |
| Aug ’22 | NZ$82.00 | NZ$85.80 +4.6% | 2.6% | NZ$89.60 | NZ$83.61 | NZ$76.42 | 4 |
| Jul ’22 | NZ$76.99 | NZ$79.44 +3.2% | 3.9% | NZ$83.61 | NZ$75.00 | NZ$69.00 | 4 |
| Jun ’22 | NZ$76.25 | NZ$79.44 +4.2% | 3.9% | NZ$83.61 | NZ$75.00 | NZ$77.99 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.