Freightways Group Valuation

Is FRW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FRW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FRW (NZ$10.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$15.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FRW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FRW?

Key metric: As FRW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FRW. This is calculated by dividing FRW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FRW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	26.6x
Earnings	NZ$70.76m
Market Cap	NZ$1.90b

FRW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.8x
PEG Ratio	2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FRW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FRW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	28.7x
MFT Mainfreight	37x	17.0%	NZ$7.4b
AIR Air New Zealand	12.2x	23.9%	NZ$1.8b
POT Port of Tauranga	44.9x	10.5%	NZ$4.0b
NPH Napier Port Holdings	20.6x	14.4%	NZ$446.7m
FRW Freightways Group	26.6x	10.2%	NZ$1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FRW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the peer average (28.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FRW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FRW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FRW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FRW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	26.6x
Fair PE Ratio	20.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FRW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FRW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	NZ$10.54	NZ$10.13 -3.9%	5.0%	NZ$10.75	NZ$9.56	n/a	4
Nov ’25	NZ$10.50	NZ$10.13 -3.5%	5.0%	NZ$10.75	NZ$9.56	n/a	4
Oct ’25	NZ$9.06	NZ$9.90 +9.3%	3.1%	NZ$10.35	NZ$9.56	n/a	4
Sep ’25	NZ$9.50	NZ$9.90 +4.2%	3.1%	NZ$10.35	NZ$9.56	n/a	4
Aug ’25	NZ$9.04	NZ$9.12 +0.8%	2.9%	NZ$9.48	NZ$8.83	n/a	4
Jul ’25	NZ$7.82	NZ$9.12 +16.6%	2.9%	NZ$9.48	NZ$8.83	n/a	4
Jun ’25	NZ$7.99	NZ$9.19 +15.0%	3.6%	NZ$9.55	NZ$8.83	n/a	4
May ’25	NZ$8.50	NZ$9.19 +8.1%	3.6%	NZ$9.55	NZ$8.83	n/a	4
Apr ’25	NZ$8.85	NZ$9.19 +3.8%	3.6%	NZ$9.55	NZ$8.83	n/a	4
Mar ’25	NZ$8.49	NZ$9.19 +8.2%	3.6%	NZ$9.55	NZ$8.83	n/a	4
Feb ’25	NZ$8.28	NZ$8.80 +6.2%	5.2%	NZ$9.50	NZ$8.25	n/a	4
Jan ’25	NZ$8.50	NZ$8.65 +1.7%	5.9%	NZ$9.50	NZ$8.24	n/a	4
Dec ’24	NZ$8.21	NZ$8.65 +5.3%	5.9%	NZ$9.50	NZ$8.24	n/a	4
Nov ’24	NZ$7.85	NZ$8.65 +10.2%	5.9%	NZ$9.50	NZ$8.24	NZ$10.50	4
Oct ’24	NZ$8.16	NZ$9.14 +12.0%	5.0%	NZ$9.60	NZ$8.46	NZ$9.06	4
Sep ’24	NZ$8.55	NZ$9.14 +6.9%	5.0%	NZ$9.60	NZ$8.46	NZ$9.50	4
Aug ’24	NZ$8.70	NZ$10.08 +15.8%	3.1%	NZ$10.48	NZ$9.67	NZ$9.04	4
Jul ’24	NZ$8.32	NZ$10.08 +21.1%	3.1%	NZ$10.48	NZ$9.67	NZ$7.82	4
Jun ’24	NZ$9.00	NZ$10.28 +14.3%	4.3%	NZ$10.70	NZ$9.67	NZ$7.99	3
May ’24	NZ$9.28	NZ$10.28 +10.8%	4.3%	NZ$10.70	NZ$9.67	NZ$8.50	3
Apr ’24	NZ$9.45	NZ$10.30 +9.0%	4.0%	NZ$10.80	NZ$9.67	NZ$8.85	4
Mar ’24	NZ$9.70	NZ$10.59 +9.1%	4.3%	NZ$11.30	NZ$10.13	NZ$8.49	4
Feb ’24	NZ$9.50	NZ$10.88 +14.6%	6.1%	NZ$11.75	NZ$10.13	NZ$8.28	4
Jan ’24	NZ$9.66	NZ$10.88 +12.7%	6.1%	NZ$11.75	NZ$10.13	NZ$8.50	4
Dec ’23	NZ$9.92	NZ$10.88 +9.7%	6.1%	NZ$11.75	NZ$10.13	NZ$8.21	4
Nov ’23	NZ$10.21	NZ$10.93 +7.1%	6.4%	NZ$11.75	NZ$10.13	NZ$7.85	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.