Air New Zealand Valuation

Is AIR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AIR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AIR (NZ$0.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$1.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AIR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AIR?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AIR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.8x
PEG Ratio0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AIR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AIR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.8x
FRW Freightways Group
19.8x11.0%NZ$1.4b
POT Port of Tauranga
31.1x9.9%NZ$3.2b
THL Tourism Holdings
6.1x14.5%NZ$393.6m
AEGN Aegean Airlines
6.2x-17.0%€1.0b
AIR Air New Zealand
5.4x6.1%NZ$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the peer average (15.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AIR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.3%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a12.3%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (9.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AIR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AIR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.4x
Fair PE Ratio16.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AIR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$0.53
NZ$0.63
+20.8%
19.3%NZ$0.80NZ$0.48n/a5
Jun ’25NZ$0.54
NZ$0.63
+17.4%
19.3%NZ$0.80NZ$0.48n/a5
May ’25NZ$0.55
NZ$0.63
+16.3%
19.3%NZ$0.80NZ$0.48n/a5
Apr ’25NZ$0.60
NZ$0.65
+7.1%
18.5%NZ$0.80NZ$0.50n/a5
Mar ’25NZ$0.60
NZ$0.65
+7.1%
18.5%NZ$0.80NZ$0.50n/a5
Feb ’25NZ$0.64
NZ$0.71
+11.7%
19.7%NZ$0.90NZ$0.52n/a6
Jan ’25NZ$0.64
NZ$0.73
+15.2%
19.5%NZ$0.90NZ$0.52n/a6
Dec ’24NZ$0.67
NZ$0.76
+14.3%
13.0%NZ$0.88NZ$0.61n/a6
Nov ’24NZ$0.68
NZ$0.78
+15.8%
9.6%NZ$0.88NZ$0.67n/a6
Oct ’24NZ$0.73
NZ$0.85
+17.1%
11.6%NZ$0.98NZ$0.74n/a6
Sep ’24NZ$0.81
NZ$0.85
+5.6%
11.6%NZ$0.98NZ$0.74n/a6
Aug ’24NZ$0.78
NZ$0.86
+10.9%
9.1%NZ$0.97NZ$0.74n/a6
Jul ’24NZ$0.78
NZ$0.86
+10.5%
9.8%NZ$0.97NZ$0.72n/a6
Jun ’24NZ$0.78
NZ$0.85
+9.4%
9.7%NZ$0.97NZ$0.72NZ$0.546
May ’24NZ$0.76
NZ$0.85
+12.3%
9.7%NZ$0.97NZ$0.72NZ$0.556
Apr ’24NZ$0.77
NZ$0.86
+12.0%
9.7%NZ$0.97NZ$0.72NZ$0.606
Mar ’24NZ$0.79
NZ$0.86
+9.1%
9.2%NZ$0.97NZ$0.72NZ$0.606
Feb ’24NZ$0.79
NZ$0.81
+3.8%
10.2%NZ$0.97NZ$0.70NZ$0.646
Jan ’24NZ$0.74
NZ$0.81
+9.4%
10.2%NZ$0.97NZ$0.70NZ$0.646
Dec ’23NZ$0.79
NZ$0.76
-3.2%
7.2%NZ$0.85NZ$0.70NZ$0.676
Nov ’23NZ$0.79
NZ$0.76
-3.6%
7.5%NZ$0.85NZ$0.70NZ$0.686
Oct ’23NZ$0.71
NZ$0.75
+4.4%
8.9%NZ$0.85NZ$0.66NZ$0.736
Sep ’23NZ$0.68
NZ$0.69
+1.5%
11.9%NZ$0.85NZ$0.60NZ$0.816
Aug ’23NZ$0.62
NZ$0.68
+10.2%
18.3%NZ$0.95NZ$0.60NZ$0.786
Jul ’23NZ$0.58
NZ$0.72
+23.9%
18.6%NZ$0.95NZ$0.60NZ$0.784
Jun ’23NZ$0.64
NZ$0.76
+19.1%
14.9%NZ$0.95NZ$0.65NZ$0.784

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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