Vista Group International Limited (NZSE:VGL) Just Released Its Interim Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Explore Vista Group International's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

It's been a mediocre week for Vista Group International Limited (NZSE:VGL) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to NZ$3.14 in the week since its latest interim results. Results were overall in line with expectations, with the company breaking even at the statutory earnings per share (EPS) level on NZ$77m in revenue. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Vista Group International's seven analysts is for revenues of NZ$166.6m in 2025. This reflects a satisfactory 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Vista Group International is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of NZ$0.022 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of NZ$170.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of NZ$0.028 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Vista Group International

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the NZ$3.97 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Vista Group International analyst has a price target of NZ$4.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at NZ$3.20. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 11% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 17% per year. So although Vista Group International is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vista Group International. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at NZ$3.97, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vista Group International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.