Serko Limited (NZSE:SKO) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Shareholders might have noticed that Serko Limited (NZSE:SKO) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.6% to NZ$3.10 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at NZ$90m, statutory losses exploded to NZ$0.18 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Serko. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Serko's seven analysts is for revenues of NZ$123.9m in 2026. This reflects a sizeable 37% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 46% to NZ$0.097. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of NZ$130.5m and NZ$0.049 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Serko after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

Check out our latest analysis for Serko

The consensus price target fell 11% to NZ$3.88, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Serko at NZ$4.55 per share, while the most bearish prices it at NZ$3.17. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Serko'shistorical trends, as the 37% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 39% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that Serko is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. They also downgraded Serko's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Serko going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Serko that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.