Gentrack Group (NZSE:GTK) - Stock price, News & Analysis

GTK fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

GTK Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 53.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 5.69% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.5% per year for the next 3 years

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Gentrack Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	NZ$1.93
52 Week High	NZ$2.18
52 Week Low	NZ$1.26
Beta	1.47
1 Month Change	1.58%
3 Month Change	4.89%
1 Year Change	41.91%
3 Year Change	-64.52%
5 Year Change	-41.87%
Change since IPO	-22.49%

Recent News & Updates

Dec 27

The Returns On Capital At Gentrack Group (NZSE:GTK) Don't Inspire Confidence

There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two...

May 28

Gentrack Group (NZSE:GTK) Will Be Hoping To Turn Its Returns On Capital Around

If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...

Shareholder Returns

	GTK	NZ Software	NZ Market
7D	-1.5%	-1.6%	-1.7%
1Y	41.9%	3.9%	-8.2%

Return vs Industry: GTK exceeded the NZ Software industry which returned 3.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GTK exceeded the NZ Market which returned -8.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GTK's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GTK volatility
GTK Average Weekly Movement	6.4%
Software Industry Average Movement	6.3%
Market Average Movement	3.8%
10% most volatile stocks in NZ Market	6.2%
10% least volatile stocks in NZ Market	2.3%

Stable Share Price: GTK is more volatile than 90% of NZ stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GTK's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of NZ stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1989	500	Gary Miles	https://www.gentrack.com

Gentrack Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, integration, and support of enterprise billing and customer management software solutions for the energy and water utility, and airport industries in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Utility Billing Software and Airport Management Software. The company’s products portfolio includes billing and customer care systems, managed services, data analytics and AI, master data services, profitability and risk management tools, pricing and product management functionalities, and market operations cloud platform.

Gentrack Group Fundamentals Summary

How do Gentrack Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GTK fundamental statistics
Market Cap	NZ$194.93m
Earnings (TTM)	NZ$3.19m
Revenue (TTM)	NZ$105.72m

60.5x

P/E Ratio

1.8x

P/S Ratio

Is GTK overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GTK income statement (TTM)
Revenue	NZ$105.72m
Cost of Revenue	NZ$91.81m
Gross Profit	NZ$13.92m
Expenses	NZ$10.73m
Earnings	NZ$3.19m

Last Reported Earnings

Sep 30, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.032
Gross Margin	13.16%
Net Profit Margin	3.02%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did GTK perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Gentrack Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GTK (NZ$1.93) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$4.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GTK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GTK is poor value based on its PE Ratio (60.5x) compared to the Oceanic Software industry average (44x).

PE vs Market: GTK is poor value based on its PE Ratio (60.5x) compared to the NZ market (19.1x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GTK's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GTK is good value based on its PB Ratio (1.2x) compared to the XO Software industry average (4.9x).

Future Growth

How is Gentrack Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

-7.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GTK's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.5% per year).

Earnings vs Market: GTK's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GTK's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GTK's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (4.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GTK's revenue (5.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GTK's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (3.5%).

Past Performance

How has Gentrack Group performed over the past 5 years?

-60.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GTK has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GTK became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GTK's earnings have declined by 60.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GTK has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: GTK has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Software industry (28.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: GTK's Return on Equity (2%) is considered low.

Financial Health

How is Gentrack Group's financial position?

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GTK's short term assets (NZ$48.1M) exceed its short term liabilities (NZ$31.4M).

Long Term Liabilities: GTK's short term assets (NZ$48.1M) exceed its long term liabilities (NZ$15.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GTK is debt free.

Reducing Debt: GTK currently has no debt however we can't compare to 5 years ago as we have no data for that period.

Debt Coverage: GTK has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: GTK has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Gentrack Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

0.84%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GTK's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GTK's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GTK's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GTK's dividend payments have been increasing.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: GTK is not paying a notable dividend for the NZ market.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of GTK's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the NZ market.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Software industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Gary Miles

1.25yrs

Tenure

Mr. Gary Miles serves as Chief Executive Officer at Gentrack Limited since 2020 and serves as its Director. He Joined Gentrack in October 2020. He serves as Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer at...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GTK's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: GTK's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/01/20 06:01
End of Day Share Price	2022/01/20 00:00
Earnings	2021/09/30
Annual Earnings	2021/09/30