Gentrack Group Limited

NZSE:GTK Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$1.1b

Gentrack Group Valuation

Is GTK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GTK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GTK (NZ$10.87) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$9.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GTK is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GTK?

Key metric: As GTK is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GTK. This is calculated by dividing GTK's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GTK's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio6x
SalesNZ$187.60m
Market CapNZ$1.13b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GTK's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GTK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.1x
VGL Vista Group International
4.8x12.5%NZ$689.3m
SKO Serko
6.4x21.2%NZ$475.1m
TWL Trade Window Holdings
4.9xn/aNZ$30.2m
SDL Solution Dynamics
0.4xn/aNZ$16.8m
GTK Gentrack Group
6x12.7%NZ$1.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GTK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6x) compared to the peer average (4.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GTK's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the Oceanian Software Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GTK 6.0xIndustry Avg. 3.1xNo. of Companies16PS02.44.87.29.612+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GTK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6x) compared to the Oceanic Software industry average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GTK's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GTK PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio6x
Fair PS Ratio3.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GTK is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GTK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$10.87
NZ$9.92
-8.8%
24.7%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a6
Nov ’25NZ$10.00
NZ$9.92
-0.8%
24.7%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a6
Oct ’25NZ$11.00
NZ$9.92
-9.8%
24.7%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a6
Sep ’25NZ$10.09
NZ$9.50
-5.8%
26.2%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a5
Aug ’25NZ$10.35
NZ$9.50
-8.2%
26.2%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a5
Jul ’25NZ$10.30
NZ$9.50
-7.8%
26.2%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a5
Jun ’25NZ$9.65
NZ$9.50
-1.6%
26.2%NZ$12.00NZ$6.00n/a5
May ’25NZ$8.10
NZ$7.13
-12.0%
34.5%NZ$11.00NZ$5.00n/a4
Apr ’25NZ$8.90
NZ$5.83
-34.5%
20.2%NZ$7.50NZ$5.00n/a3
Mar ’25NZ$7.91
NZ$5.83
-26.3%
20.2%NZ$7.50NZ$5.00n/a3
Feb ’25NZ$6.60
NZ$5.83
-11.6%
20.2%NZ$7.50NZ$5.00n/a3
Jan ’25NZ$6.62
NZ$5.83
-11.9%
20.2%NZ$7.50NZ$5.00n/a3
Dec ’24NZ$6.19
NZ$5.83
-5.8%
20.2%NZ$7.50NZ$5.00n/a3
Nov ’24NZ$5.10
NZ$4.47
-12.4%
10.1%NZ$5.00NZ$3.90NZ$10.003
Oct ’24NZ$4.79
NZ$4.47
-6.8%
10.1%NZ$5.00NZ$3.90NZ$11.003
Sep ’24NZ$4.47
NZ$4.47
-0.07%
10.1%NZ$5.00NZ$3.90NZ$10.093
Aug ’24NZ$4.49
NZ$4.47
-0.5%
10.1%NZ$5.00NZ$3.90NZ$10.353
Jul ’24NZ$4.20
NZ$4.22
+0.5%
13.7%NZ$5.00NZ$3.48NZ$10.304
Jun ’24NZ$4.10
NZ$4.22
+2.9%
13.7%NZ$5.00NZ$3.48NZ$9.654
May ’24NZ$3.29
NZ$3.45
+4.7%
9.7%NZ$3.80NZ$2.90NZ$8.104
Apr ’24NZ$2.82
NZ$3.11
+10.2%
19.0%NZ$3.80NZ$2.25NZ$8.904
Mar ’24NZ$2.93
NZ$2.93
+0.09%
24.4%NZ$3.80NZ$2.20NZ$7.914
Feb ’24NZ$2.85
NZ$2.61
-8.4%
20.9%NZ$3.38NZ$2.20NZ$6.603
Jan ’24NZ$2.53
NZ$2.61
+3.2%
20.9%NZ$3.38NZ$2.20NZ$6.623
Dec ’23NZ$2.45
NZ$2.38
-3.0%
31.9%NZ$3.38NZ$1.55NZ$6.193
Nov ’23NZ$1.55
NZ$1.58
+1.6%
1.6%NZ$1.60NZ$1.55NZ$5.102

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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