While Gentrack Group Limited (NZSE:GTK) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NZSE over the last few months. As a stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s take a look at Gentrack Group’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists.
Is Gentrack Group still cheap?
Gentrack Group is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 59.88x is currently well-above the industry average of 34.12x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. If you like the stock, you may want to keep an eye out for a potential price decline in the future. Since Gentrack Group’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Gentrack Group generate?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Gentrack Group's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 65%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in GTK’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe GTK should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GTK for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for GTK, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
Diving deeper into the forecasts for Gentrack Group mentioned earlier will help you understand how analysts view the stock going forward. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.
If you are no longer interested in Gentrack Group, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.