The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Ryman Healthcare Limited (NZSE:RYM) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
See our latest analysis for Ryman Healthcare
How Much Debt Does Ryman Healthcare Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2021 Ryman Healthcare had NZ$2.30b of debt, an increase on NZ$1.77b, over one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
How Strong Is Ryman Healthcare's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Ryman Healthcare had liabilities of NZ$750.6m due within a year, and liabilities of NZ$5.59b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had NZ$20.2m in cash and NZ$542.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by NZ$5.78b.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of NZ$6.69b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Ryman Healthcare shareholders face the double whammy of a high net debt to EBITDA ratio (43.3), and fairly weak interest coverage, since EBIT is just 1.5 times the interest expense. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Ryman Healthcare saw its EBIT tank 38% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Ryman Healthcare can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Happily for any shareholders, Ryman Healthcare actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT over the last three years. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.
Our View
To be frank both Ryman Healthcare's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. It's also worth noting that Ryman Healthcare is in the Healthcare industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Ryman Healthcare's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If all goes well, that should boost returns, but on the flip side, the risk of permanent capital loss is elevated by the debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Ryman Healthcare (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About NZSE:RYM
Ryman Healthcare
Develops, owns, and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes, and hospitals for the elderly people in New Zealand and Australia.
Reasonable growth potential and fair value.