Stock Analysis

If You Had Bought Oceania Healthcare (NZSE:OCA) Shares Three Years Ago You'd Have Earned 39% Returns

NZSE:OCA
Source: Shutterstock

You can receive the average market return by buying a low-cost index fund. But you can make superior returns by picking better-than average stocks. Notably, the Oceania Healthcare Limited (NZSE:OCA) share price has gained 39% in three years, which is better than the average market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 7.6% in the last year.

Check out our latest analysis for Oceania Healthcare

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last three years, Oceania Healthcare failed to grow earnings per share, which fell 42% (annualized).

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

It may well be that Oceania Healthcare revenue growth rate of 3.9% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. If the company is being managed for the long term good, today's shareholders might be right to hold on.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NZSE:OCA Earnings and Revenue Growth January 18th 2021

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Oceania Healthcare will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Oceania Healthcare's TSR for the last 3 years was 57%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Oceania Healthcare shareholders have gained 11% over twelve months (even including dividends). This isn't far from the market return of 12%. It has to be noted that the recent return falls short of the 16% shareholders have gained each year, over the last three years. Share price gains are anything but steady, so it's a positive to see that the longer term returns are reasonable. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Oceania Healthcare you should know about.

Oceania Healthcare is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

When trading Oceania Healthcare or any other investment, use the platform considered by many to be the Professional's Gateway to the Worlds Market, Interactive Brokers. You get the lowest-cost* trading on stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds worldwide from a single integrated account. Promoted


Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Oceania Healthcare is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
*Interactive Brokers Rated Lowest Cost Broker by StockBrokers.com Annual Online Review 2020


Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.