The board of NZX Limited (NZSE:NZX) has announced that it will pay a dividend of NZ$0.0353 per share on the 23rd of September. This means the annual payment is 4.5% of the current stock price, which is above the average for the industry.
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NZX Doesn't Earn Enough To Cover Its Payments
While it is great to have a strong dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is sustainable. Prior to this announcement, the dividend made up 118% of earnings, and the company was generating negative free cash flows. Paying out such a large dividend compared to earnings while also not generating free cash flows is a major warning sign for the sustainability of the dividend as these levels are certainly a bit high.
Earnings per share is forecast to rise by 13.8% over the next year. However, if the dividend continues along recent trends, it could start putting pressure on the balance sheet with the payout ratio reaching 134% over the next year.
Dividend Volatility
While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was NZ$0.0471 in 2012, and the most recent fiscal year payment was NZ$0.061. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 2.6% per annum over that time. Modest growth in the dividend is good to see, but we think this is offset by historical cuts to the payments. It is hard to live on a dividend income if the company's earnings are not consistent.
Dividend Growth May Be Hard To Achieve
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. NZX hasn't seen much change in its earnings per share over the last five years.
We should note that NZX has issued stock equal to 12% of shares outstanding. Trying to grow the dividend when issuing new shares reminds us of the ancient Greek tale of Sisyphus - perpetually pushing a boulder uphill. Companies that consistently issue new shares are often suboptimal from a dividend perspective.
NZX's Dividend Doesn't Look Great
Overall, while some might be pleased that the dividend wasn't cut, we think this may help NZX make more consistent payments in the future. The company seems to be stretching itself a bit to make such big payments, but it doesn't appear they can be consistent over time. Considering all of these factors, we wouldn't rely on this dividend if we wanted to live on the income.
Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. For example, we've identified 3 warning signs for NZX (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing. Is NZX not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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