Earnings Miss: Odfjell SE Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Odfjell SE (OB:ODF) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Odfjell missed earnings this time around, with US$317m revenue coming in 2.6% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.90 also fell short of expectations by 11%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Odfjell

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Odfjell's five analysts is for revenues of US$1.29b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 12% to US$3.11 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.74 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at kr203, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Odfjell, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr213 and the most bearish at kr188 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Odfjell's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Odfjell's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 0.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Odfjell is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr203, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Odfjell analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Odfjell (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.