Yara International Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of YAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

YAR (NOK317.2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (NOK425.21)

Is YAR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YAR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YAR (NOK317.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NOK425.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YAR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YAR?

Key metric: As YAR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YAR. This is calculated by dividing YAR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YAR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	13.2x
Earnings	US$548.00m
Market Cap	US$7.24b

YAR key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	6.5x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YAR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YAR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	39.2x
NHY Norsk Hydro	107.4x	48.4%	NOK 142.0b
BRG Borregaard	22.2x	13.5%	NOK 18.3b
FMC FMC	4.8x	-17.0%	US$7.3b
MOS Mosaic	22.3x	26.9%	US$8.3b
YAR Yara International	13.3x	16.2%	NOK 80.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the peer average (39.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YAR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YAR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YAR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	13.2x
Fair PE Ratio	13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YAR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YAR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	NOK 314.90	NOK 351.64 +11.7%	14.8%	NOK 435.00	NOK 250.00	n/a	18
Nov ’25	NOK 333.50	NOK 350.40 +5.1%	15.2%	NOK 435.00	NOK 250.00	n/a	18
Oct ’25	NOK 337.60	NOK 347.25 +2.9%	14.8%	NOK 435.00	NOK 280.00	n/a	17
Sep ’25	NOK 308.80	NOK 346.67 +12.3%	15.0%	NOK 435.00	NOK 270.00	n/a	17
Aug ’25	NOK 306.40	NOK 352.04 +14.9%	15.6%	NOK 435.00	NOK 270.00	n/a	17
Jul ’25	NOK 307.10	NOK 352.10 +14.7%	16.4%	NOK 435.00	NOK 270.00	n/a	17
Jun ’25	NOK 324.90	NOK 354.78 +9.2%	15.8%	NOK 435.00	NOK 270.00	n/a	17
May ’25	NOK 317.50	NOK 370.87 +16.8%	14.6%	NOK 448.73	NOK 280.00	n/a	17
Apr ’25	NOK 342.90	NOK 381.12 +11.1%	11.7%	NOK 439.06	NOK 300.00	n/a	17
Mar ’25	NOK 342.30	NOK 386.17 +12.8%	11.6%	NOK 435.00	NOK 300.00	n/a	17
Feb ’25	NOK 351.60	NOK 385.36 +9.6%	14.5%	NOK 460.00	NOK 260.00	n/a	16
Jan ’25	NOK 361.20	NOK 397.64 +10.1%	13.3%	NOK 475.00	NOK 300.00	n/a	16
Dec ’24	NOK 362.60	NOK 399.58 +10.2%	13.4%	NOK 475.00	NOK 300.00	n/a	16
Nov ’24	NOK 363.20	NOK 402.89 +10.9%	12.8%	NOK 475.00	NOK 320.00	NOK 333.50	16
Oct ’24	NOK 405.30	NOK 416.05 +2.7%	13.1%	NOK 505.00	NOK 320.00	NOK 337.60	17
Sep ’24	NOK 387.60	NOK 412.50 +6.4%	13.4%	NOK 505.00	NOK 320.00	NOK 308.80	18
Aug ’24	NOK 412.30	NOK 411.41 -0.2%	13.2%	NOK 505.00	NOK 320.00	NOK 306.40	18
Jul ’24	NOK 379.00	NOK 433.29 +14.3%	13.2%	NOK 520.00	NOK 330.00	NOK 307.10	18
Jun ’24	NOK 412.70	NOK 441.76 +7.0%	12.8%	NOK 525.00	NOK 350.00	NOK 324.90	18
May ’24	NOK 428.80	NOK 456.59 +6.5%	13.4%	NOK 540.00	NOK 360.00	NOK 317.50	18
Apr ’24	NOK 453.90	NOK 472.10 +4.0%	12.4%	NOK 550.00	NOK 360.00	NOK 342.90	18
Mar ’24	NOK 491.80	NOK 484.51 -1.5%	11.2%	NOK 550.00	NOK 360.00	NOK 342.30	17
Feb ’24	NOK 443.10	NOK 476.09 +7.4%	10.5%	NOK 560.00	NOK 380.00	NOK 351.60	17
Jan ’24	NOK 430.60	NOK 475.12 +10.3%	11.4%	NOK 560.00	NOK 380.00	NOK 361.20	17
Dec ’23	NOK 449.70	NOK 477.25 +6.1%	11.8%	NOK 560.00	NOK 380.00	NOK 362.60	17
Nov ’23	NOK 462.20	NOK 478.73 +3.6%	11.4%	NOK 560.00	NOK 380.00	NOK 363.20	17

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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