Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (OB:GJF) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to kr172 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit kr38b. Statutory earnings fell 8.7% short of analyst forecasts, reaching kr8.11 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Gjensidige Forsikring

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Gjensidige Forsikring's eleven analysts is for revenues of kr39.1b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 3.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 37% to kr11.29. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr38.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.49 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr196, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Gjensidige Forsikring analyst has a price target of kr245 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr165. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Gjensidige Forsikring's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Gjensidige Forsikring is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Gjensidige Forsikring's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Gjensidige Forsikring analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Gjensidige Forsikring is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.