SalMar ASA Just Missed Earnings; Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that SalMar ASA (OB:SALM) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.7% to kr472 in the past week. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and SalMar delivered a statutory loss of kr2.70 per share. Revenues of kr5.2b did beat expectations by 5.4% though. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on SalMar after the latest results.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in SalMar. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from SalMar's eight analysts is for revenues of kr30.0b in 2025. This reflects a sizeable 21% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 41% to kr18.95. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr30.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr29.28 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for SalMar

The consensus price target held steady at kr577, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on SalMar, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr753 and the most bearish at kr430 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that SalMar's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 19% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that SalMar is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for SalMar. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr577, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SalMar going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for SalMar (2 are concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.