Mowi ASA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's been a good week for Mowi ASA (OB:MOWI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.3% to kr194. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €1.4b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 83% to hit €0.05 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mowi's nine analysts is for revenues of €6.11b in 2025. This reflects a solid 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 77% to €1.12. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €6.12b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Mowi
The consensus price target held steady at kr225, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Mowi analyst has a price target of kr250 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at kr187. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Mowi's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Mowi is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mowi. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Mowi analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Mowi has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About OB:MOWI
Mowi
A seafood company, produces and sells Atlantic salmon products worldwide.
Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.
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