Panoro Energy ASA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Panoro Energy ASA (OB:PEN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.3% to kr24.04 in the week after its latest annual results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of US$0.29 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit US$229m and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Panoro Energy after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Panoro Energy

After the latest results, the five analysts covering Panoro Energy are now predicting revenues of US$324.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 42% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 170% to US$0.77. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$343.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.98 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of kr43.05, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Panoro Energy's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Panoro Energy, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr50.12 and the most bearish at kr34.97 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Panoro Energy's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 42% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 53% over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 3.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Panoro Energy is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Panoro Energy. Sadly they also cut their revenue estimates, although at least the company is expected to perform a bit better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr43.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Panoro Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Panoro Energy .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.