Kongsberg Gruppen ASA's (OB:KOG) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 22.8x Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (OB:KOG) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Norway have P/E ratios under 10x and even P/E's lower than 6x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Kongsberg Gruppen certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings performance will continue. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Kongsberg Gruppen

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Kongsberg Gruppen's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 44% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 200% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the five analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 13% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 32% growth forecast for the broader market.

With this information, we find it concerning that Kongsberg Gruppen is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Kongsberg Gruppen currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Kongsberg Gruppen that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.