Time To Worry? Analysts Just Downgraded Their Fastned B.V. (AMS:FAST) Outlook

Market forces rained on the parade of Fastned B.V. (AMS:FAST) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Fastned B.V's three analysts is for revenues of €35m in 2022, which would reflect a substantial 180% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 57% to €0.63. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €39m and losses of €0.61 per share in 2022. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

See our latest analysis for Fastned B.V

the analysts have cut their price target 6.9% to €58.50 per share, signalling that the declining revenue and ongoing losses are contributing to the lower valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Fastned B.V, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €92.00 and the most bearish at €41.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Fastned B.V's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 180% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 54% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Fastned B.V is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Fastned B.V's future valuation. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Fastned B.V after today.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Fastned B.V analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.