InPost S.A. Just Missed EPS By 18%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

The full-year results for InPost S.A. (AMS:INPST) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of zł8.8b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit zł1.30 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for InPost

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from InPost's twelve analysts is for revenues of zł10.8b in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 94% to zł2.51. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł10.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł2.52 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €14.94, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values InPost at €19.08 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €8.25. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting InPost is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that InPost's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 38% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that InPost is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €14.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for InPost going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for InPost you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.