What Does The Future Hold For Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates

The analysts covering Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for this year. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

After this downgrade, Aperam's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €8.1b in 2022. This would be a sizeable 31% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing €10b of revenue in 2022. It looks like forecasts have become a fair bit less optimistic on Aperam, given the substantial drop in revenue estimates.

See our latest analysis for Aperam

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aperam's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 43% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.0% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 2.9% per year. So it's clear with the acceleration in growth, Aperam is expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for Aperam this year. The analysts also expect revenues to perform better than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Aperam going forwards.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Aperam's business, like concerns around earnings quality. Learn more, and discover the 2 other flags we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.