Is Akzo Nobel (AMS:AKZA) A Risky Investment?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 02, 2022
ENXTAM:AKZA
Source: Shutterstock

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Akzo Nobel N.V. (AMS:AKZA) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Akzo Nobel

How Much Debt Does Akzo Nobel Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2021 Akzo Nobel had debt of €3.08b, up from €2.93b in one year. However, it also had €1.10b in cash, and so its net debt is €1.98b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
ENXTAM:AKZA Debt to Equity History January 2nd 2022

How Strong Is Akzo Nobel's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Akzo Nobel had liabilities of €4.41b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €3.33b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €1.10b as well as receivables valued at €2.38b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €4.25b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because Akzo Nobel is worth a massive €17.5b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Akzo Nobel has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.4. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 19.8 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Another good sign is that Akzo Nobel has been able to increase its EBIT by 28% in twelve months, making it easier to pay down debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Akzo Nobel can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Akzo Nobel produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 56% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

The good news is that Akzo Nobel's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And the good news does not stop there, as its EBIT growth rate also supports that impression! Looking at the bigger picture, we think Akzo Nobel's use of debt seems quite reasonable and we're not concerned about it. After all, sensible leverage can boost returns on equity. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Akzo Nobel that you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Discounted cash flow calculation for every stock

Simply Wall St does a detailed discounted cash flow calculation every 6 hours for every stock on the market, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any company just search here. It’s FREE.

Make Confident Investment Decisions

Simply Wall St's Editorial Team provides unbiased, factual reporting on global stocks using in-depth fundamental analysis.
Find out more about our editorial guidelines and team.