Akzo Nobel (ENXTAM:AKZA) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AKZA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AKZA (€58.32) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€119.71)

AKZA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

AKZA Stock Overview

Akzo Nobel N.V. engages in the production and sale of paints and coatings worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 51.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 15.39% per year

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 3.4% is not well covered

Profit margins (6%) are lower than last year (9.4%)

Akzo Nobel Competitors

Koninklijke DSM

ENXTAM:DSM

€20.2b

Corbion

ENXTAM:CRBN

€1.5b

OCI

ENXTAM:OCI

€7.9b

ArcelorMittal

ENXTAM:MT

€17.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Akzo Nobel
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€58.32
52 Week High	€104.60
52 Week Low	€55.00
Beta	0.96
1 Month Change	-7.49%
3 Month Change	-7.07%
1 Year Change	-37.24%
3 Year Change	-27.70%
5 Year Change	-33.85%
Change since IPO	261.89%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 12

Is Akzo Nobel (AMS:AKZA) Using Too Much Debt?

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...

Jul 28

Why Akzo Nobel's (AMS:AKZA) Shaky Earnings Are Just The Beginning Of Its Problems

A lackluster earnings announcement from Akzo Nobel N.V. ( AMS:AKZA ) last week didn't sink the stock price. However, we...

Shareholder Returns

	AKZA	NL Chemicals	NL Market
7D	2.1%	3.3%	-0.6%
1Y	-37.2%	-26.1%	-24.8%

Return vs Industry: AKZA underperformed the Dutch Chemicals industry which returned -28% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AKZA underperformed the Dutch Market which returned -26.7% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AKZA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AKZA volatility
AKZA Average Weekly Movement	3.9%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement	4.1%
Market Average Movement	4.7%
10% most volatile stocks in NL Market	7.9%
10% least volatile stocks in NL Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: AKZA is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Dutch stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AKZA's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1646	36,100	Thierry F. Vanlancker	https://www.akzonobel.com

Akzo Nobel N.V. engages in the production and sale of paints and coatings worldwide. It offers decorative paints, including paints, lacquers, and varnishes; and a range of mixing machines and color concepts for the building and renovation industry, as well as specialty coatings for metal, wood, and other building materials. The company also provides performance coatings that protect and enhance ships, cars, aircraft, yachts, architectural components, consumer goods, and oil and gas facilities.

Akzo Nobel Fundamentals Summary

How do Akzo Nobel's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AKZA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€10.18b
Earnings (TTM)	€616.00m
Revenue (TTM)	€10.19b

16.5x

P/E Ratio

1.0x

P/S Ratio

Is AKZA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AKZA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€10.19b
Cost of Revenue	€6.37b
Gross Profit	€3.83b
Other Expenses	€3.21b
Earnings	€616.00m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 20, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	3.53
Gross Margin	37.54%
Net Profit Margin	6.04%
Debt/Equity Ratio	105.3%

How did AKZA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.4%

Current Dividend Yield

45%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AKZA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AKZA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AKZA. This is calculated by dividing AKZA's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AKZA's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€10.18b

AKZA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	13x
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AKZA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

AKZA PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for AKZA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.6x
DSM Koninklijke DSM	18.6x	0.005%	€20.2b
CRBN Corbion	24.2x	14.5%	€1.5b
OCI OCI	6.4x	-40.2%	€7.9b
MT ArcelorMittal	1x	-41.6%	€17.5b
AKZA Akzo Nobel	16.5x	15.4%	€10.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AKZA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the peer average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AKZA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AKZA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (11.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AKZA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AKZA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.5x
Fair PE Ratio	23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AKZA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AKZA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AKZA (€58.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€119.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AKZA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Akzo Nobel forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 19 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

15.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AKZA's forecast earnings growth (15.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.1%).

Earnings vs Market: AKZA's earnings (15.4% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Dutch market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: AKZA's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: AKZA's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Dutch market (9.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AKZA's revenue (3.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AKZA's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.5%).

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Akzo Nobel performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

21.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AKZA has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: AKZA's current net profit margins (6%) are lower than last year (9.4%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AKZA's earnings have grown significantly by 21.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: AKZA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: AKZA had negative earnings growth (-28.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Chemicals industry average (36.6%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AKZA's Return on Equity (11.9%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Akzo Nobel's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AKZA's short term assets (€7.0B) exceed its short term liabilities (€6.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: AKZA's short term assets (€7.0B) exceed its long term liabilities (€4.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AKZA's net debt to equity ratio (71.1%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AKZA's debt to equity ratio has increased from 42.5% to 105.3% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: AKZA's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (5.5%).

Interest Coverage: AKZA's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (12.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Akzo Nobel current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.40%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Akzo Nobel Dividend Yield vs Market

How does Akzo Nobel dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (Akzo Nobel)	3.4%
Market Bottom 25% (NL)	2.4%
Market Top 25% (NL)	6.7%
Industry Average (Chemicals)	3.9%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (Akzo Nobel)	3.8%

Notable Dividend: AKZA's dividend (3.4%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Dutch market (2.51%).

High Dividend: AKZA's dividend (3.4%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Dutch market (6.84%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: AKZA's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: AKZA's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (44.9%), AKZA's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (1727.6%), AKZA's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.2yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Thierry F. Vanlancker (58 yo)

5.17yrs

Tenure

€6,271,361

Compensation

Mr. Thierry F. J. Vanlancker has been Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Management at Akzo Nobel N.V. since July 19, 2017 and its Member of Board of Management since September 8, 2017. M...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Thierry F. Vanlancker's Compensation vs Akzo Nobel Earnings

How has Thierry F. Vanlancker's remuneration changed compared to Akzo Nobel's earnings?
Date	Total Comp.	Salary	Company Earnings
Jun 30 2022	n/a	n/a	€616m
Mar 31 2022	n/a	n/a	€758m
Dec 31 2021	€6m	€1m	€823m
Sep 30 2021	n/a	n/a	€805m
Jun 30 2021	n/a	n/a	€866m
Mar 31 2021	n/a	n/a	€741m
Dec 31 2020	€6m	€1m	€637m
Sep 30 2020	n/a	n/a	€544m
Jun 30 2020	n/a	n/a	€481m
Mar 31 2020	n/a	n/a	€567m
Dec 31 2019	€4m	€1m	€517m
Sep 30 2019	n/a	n/a	€477m
Jun 30 2019	n/a	n/a	€463m
Mar 31 2019	n/a	n/a	€354m
Dec 31 2018	€3m	€979k	€400m
Sep 30 2018	n/a	n/a	€393m
Jun 30 2018	n/a	n/a	€365m
Mar 31 2018	n/a	n/a	€426m
Dec 31 2017	€2m	€429k	€439m

Compensation vs Market: Thierry F.'s total compensation ($USD6.15M) is about average for companies of similar size in the Dutch market ($USD5.02M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Thierry F.'s compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AKZA's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.2 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: AKZA's board of directors are considered experienced (4.6 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

ENXTAM:AKZA Recent Insider Transactions by Companies or Individuals
Date	Value	Name	Entity	Shares	Max Price
21 Apr 22	Buy€110,920	Maarten de Vries	Individual	1,338	€82.90
21 Apr 22	Buy€224,493	Thierry F. Vanlancker	Individual	2,708	€82.90
28 Feb 22	Buy€99,696	Thierry F. Vanlancker	Individual	1,200	€83.08

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of AKZA?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Individual Insiders	120,758	0.07%
General Public	68,972,520	39.5%
Institutions	105,406,722	60.4%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 49.28% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
5.46%	Massachusetts Financial Services Company	9,528,747	€555.7m	0%	0.14%
5.09%	Dodge & Cox	8,886,635	€518.3m	0%	0.29%
5.04%	BlackRock, Inc.	8,791,018	€512.7m	-1.85%	0.01%
3.82%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	6,673,402	€389.2m	2.3%	0.01%
3.26%	GIC Private Limited	5,686,908	€331.7m	0%	0.53%
3.24%	Lazard Asset Management LLC	5,660,192	€330.1m	0%	0.3%
3.17%	Norges Bank Investment Management	5,535,721	€322.8m	0%	0.04%
3.1%	Amundi Asset Management	5,409,742	€315.5m	0%	0.09%
3.08%	T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.	5,380,716	€313.8m	0.82%	0.03%
1.94%	Capital Research and Management Company	3,376,849	€196.9m	0.13%	0.01%
1.76%	BMO Asset Management Corp.	3,073,179	€179.2m	0%	0.1%
1.71%	American Century Investment Management Inc	2,982,044	€173.9m	0.18%	0.12%
1.11%	Fidelity International Ltd	1,934,390	€112.8m	0%	0.06%
1.05%	JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments	1,827,401	€106.6m	229.69%	0.1%
0.9%	Janus Henderson Group plc	1,572,044	€91.7m	-6.06%	0.05%
0.8%	Union Asset Management Holding AG	1,398,281	€81.5m	4.2%	0.09%
0.72%	UBS Asset Management	1,263,184	€73.7m	-1.92%	0.01%
0.65%	Aristotle Capital Management, LLC	1,142,948	€66.7m	6.27%	0.14%
0.61%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	1,068,268	€62.3m	1.67%	0.01%
0.55%	Geode Capital Management, LLC	967,526	€56.4m	1.52%	0.01%
0.48%	J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Inc.	835,290	€48.7m	2.54%	0.01%
0.47%	State Street Global Advisors, Inc.	822,401	€48.0m	2.73%	no data
0.43%	BNPP Asset Management Holding	745,728	€43.5m	91.83%	0.08%
0.41%	Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management	719,783	€42.0m	0.24%	0.02%
0.41%	Fiduciary Management, Inc.	718,100	€41.9m	7.31%	0.32%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
AKZO.Y	OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)		SPON ADS EACH REP 1/3 ORD SHS(R/S)	US	USD	May 1989
AKUP	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)		SPON ADS EACH REP 1/3 ORD SHS(R/S)	DE	EUR	May 1989
AKZO.F	OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)	Yes	Common Shares	US	USD	Dec 1989
AKZA	ENXTAM (Euronext Amsterdam)	Yes	Common Shares	NL	EUR	Dec 1989
AKZO	WBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Shares	AT	EUR	Dec 1989
AKU1	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Common Shares	DE	EUR	Dec 1989
0A00	LSE (London Stock Exchange)	Yes	Common Shares	GB	EUR	Dec 1989
AKZAA	BATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')	Yes	Common Shares	GB	EUR	Dec 1989
AKU1	ETLX (Eurotlx)	Yes	Common Shares	IT	EUR	Dec 1989

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/30 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/30 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31