Aegon Ltd.'s (AMS:AGN) Stock Financial Prospects Look Bleak: Should Shareholders Be Prepared For A Share Price Correction?

Aegon's (AMS:AGN) stock is up by 7.4% over the past three months. However, its weak financial performance indicators makes us a bit doubtful if that trend could continue. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Aegon's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aegon is:

7.3% = €676m ÷ €9.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every €1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn €0.07 in profit.

See our latest analysis for Aegon

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Aegon's Earnings Growth And 7.3% ROE

When you first look at it, Aegon's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 12%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. For this reason, Aegon's five year net income decline of 32% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Aegon's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 6.2% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Aegon's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Aegon Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 94% (implying that 6.1% of the profits are retained), most of Aegon's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run.

In addition, Aegon has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 44% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 17% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.

Conclusion

On the whole, Aegon's performance is quite a big let-down. Particularly, its ROE is a huge disappointment, not to mention its lack of proper reinvestment into the business. As a result its earnings growth has also been quite disappointing. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.