Aegon Valuation

Is AGN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AGN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AGN (€5.96) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.85)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AGN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AGN?

Key metric: As AGN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AGN. This is calculated by dividing AGN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AGN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.8x
Sales€12.73b
Market Cap€9.68b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AGN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AGN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.4x
NN NN Group
1.2x5.6%€12.2b
ASRNL ASR Nederland
0.6x-10.3%€9.5b
2883 KGI Financial Holding
6.2x10.1%NT$316.3b
G07 Great Eastern Holdings
1.7xn/aS$12.2b
AGN Aegon
0.8x-4.5%€9.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AGN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (2.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AGN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AGN 0.8xIndustry Avg. 1.0xNo. of Companies12PS00.61.21.82.43+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AGN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (1x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AGN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AGN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.8x
Fair PS Ratio0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AGN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AGN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.96
€6.52
+9.4%
10.8%€8.00€5.40n/a15
Nov ’25€5.87
€6.27
+6.9%
11.5%€7.65€4.80n/a15
Oct ’25€5.65
€6.28
+11.1%
11.5%€7.65€4.80n/a15
Sep ’25€5.52
€6.26
+13.4%
11.7%€7.65€4.80n/a15
Aug ’25€5.77
€6.11
+5.9%
14.1%€7.50€4.30n/a15
Jul ’25€5.86
€6.10
+4.1%
14.4%€7.60€4.30n/a15
Jun ’25€5.94
€6.06
+2.0%
15.3%€8.00€4.30n/a14
May ’25€5.86
€5.90
+0.7%
12.0%€7.00€4.30n/a15
Apr ’25€5.65
€5.84
+3.3%
11.6%€7.00€4.30n/a15
Mar ’25€5.24
€5.88
+12.3%
11.3%€7.00€4.30n/a16
Feb ’25€5.36
€5.76
+7.6%
11.5%€7.00€4.30n/a16
Jan ’25€5.25
€5.49
+4.6%
12.0%€6.75€4.00n/a15
Dec ’24€5.07
€5.48
+8.0%
12.0%€6.75€4.00n/a15
Nov ’24€4.61
€5.38
+16.8%
13.6%€6.75€3.60€5.8715
Oct ’24€4.58
€5.45
+18.9%
13.3%€6.75€3.60€5.6514
Sep ’24€4.73
€5.39
+13.9%
13.4%€6.75€3.60€5.5215
Aug ’24€4.91
€5.38
+9.6%
14.1%€6.75€3.60€5.7714
Jul ’24€4.63
€5.39
+16.3%
13.8%€6.75€3.60€5.8615
Jun ’24€4.18
€5.33
+27.7%
15.0%€6.75€3.60€5.9414
May ’24€4.12
€5.33
+29.4%
15.1%€6.75€3.60€5.8614
Apr ’24€3.95
€5.38
+36.1%
15.5%€6.75€3.60€5.6514
Mar ’24€4.92
€5.38
+9.3%
15.5%€6.75€3.60€5.2414
Feb ’24€5.02
€5.29
+5.4%
14.7%€6.75€3.60€5.3614
Jan ’24€4.74
€5.18
+9.3%
14.8%€6.75€3.50€5.2515
Dec ’23€4.73
€5.19
+9.7%
14.8%€6.75€3.50€5.0715
Nov ’23€4.72
€5.17
+9.5%
14.6%€6.50€3.50€4.6116

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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