Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Van Lanschot Kempen NV (AMS:VLK) Price Target After Its Latest Report

Van Lanschot Kempen NV (AMS:VLK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.0% to €21.70 in the week after its latest interim results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of €3.35 per share roughly in line with what the analyst had forecast. Revenues of €293m came in 3.5% ahead of analyst predictions. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analyst is forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their mind on Van Lanschot Kempen after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Van Lanschot Kempen

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the sole analyst covering Van Lanschot Kempen, is for revenues of €566.0m in 2022, which would reflect a considerable 12% reduction in Van Lanschot Kempen's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 42% to €1.82 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of €565.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.65 in 2022. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analyst has become more bullish after the latest result.

The average the analyst price target fell 6.3% to €30.00, suggesting thatthe analyst has other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 23% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Van Lanschot Kempen's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Van Lanschot Kempen's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2024, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Van Lanschot Kempen has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.