Are Investors Undervaluing InNature Berhad (KLSE:INNATURE) By 42%?

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of InNature Berhad (KLSE:INNATURE) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for InNature Berhad

The method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (MYR, Millions)	RM26.5m	RM31.9m	RM34.1m	RM35.9m	RM37.6m	RM39.2m	RM40.9m	RM42.5m	RM44.1m	RM45.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 5.31%	Est @ 4.78%	Est @ 4.41%	Est @ 4.16%	Est @ 3.97%	Est @ 3.85%	Est @ 3.76%
Present Value (MYR, Millions) Discounted @ 9.0%	RM24.3	RM26.8	RM26.3	RM25.4	RM24.4	RM23.4	RM22.3	RM21.3	RM20.3	RM19.3

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = RM233m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 3.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = RM46m× (1 + 3.6%) ÷ (9.0%– 3.6%) = RM864m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= RM864m÷ ( 1 + 9.0%)¹⁰= RM364m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is RM597m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of RM0.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 42% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at InNature Berhad as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.010. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For InNature Berhad, we've put together three relevant items you should look at:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for InNature Berhad we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does INNATURE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Malaysian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.