IOI Corporation Berhad Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

IOI Corporation Berhad (KLSE:IOICORP) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. Unfortunately, IOI Corporation Berhad delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of RM2.5b were 12% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of RM0.02 missed estimates by 54%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for IOI Corporation Berhad

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from IOI Corporation Berhad's 16 analysts is for revenues of RM11.0b in 2025. This would reflect a major 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 59% to RM0.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of RM10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM0.21 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at RM4.14, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values IOI Corporation Berhad at RM4.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at RM3.25. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the IOI Corporation Berhad's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting IOI Corporation Berhad's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that IOI Corporation Berhad is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on IOI Corporation Berhad. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for IOI Corporation Berhad going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - IOI Corporation Berhad has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.