Results: Heineken Malaysia Berhad Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Heineken Malaysia Berhad (KLSE:HEIM) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to RM27.60 in the week since its latest annual results. Heineken Malaysia Berhad reported RM2.8b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of RM1.55 beat expectations, being 9.0% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Heineken Malaysia Berhad

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Heineken Malaysia Berhad are now predicting revenues of RM2.90b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be RM1.57, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of RM2.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM1.46 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of RM30.62, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Heineken Malaysia Berhad analyst has a price target of RM34.56 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at RM25.30. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Heineken Malaysia Berhad's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Heineken Malaysia Berhad.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Heineken Malaysia Berhad's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Heineken Malaysia Berhad's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Heineken Malaysia Berhad analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Heineken Malaysia Berhad you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.