David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Guan Chong Berhad (KLSE:GCB) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Guan Chong Berhad
What Is Guan Chong Berhad's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2020 Guan Chong Berhad had RM1.12b of debt, an increase on RM682.7m, over one year. On the flip side, it has RM63.3m in cash leading to net debt of about RM1.06b.
How Healthy Is Guan Chong Berhad's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Guan Chong Berhad had liabilities of RM1.15b falling due within a year, and liabilities of RM555.7m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of RM63.3m as well as receivables valued at RM530.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total RM1.11b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Guan Chong Berhad has a market capitalization of RM2.99b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Guan Chong Berhad's net debt is 3.1 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. However, its interest coverage of 11.5 is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Also relevant is that Guan Chong Berhad has grown its EBIT by a very respectable 26% in the last year, thus enhancing its ability to pay down debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Guan Chong Berhad can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Guan Chong Berhad burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
Guan Chong Berhad's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. There's no doubt that its ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT is pretty flash. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Guan Chong Berhad's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Guan Chong Berhad (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About KLSE:GCB
Guan Chong Berhad
An investment holding company, produces, processes, markets, and sells cocoa-derived food ingredients and cocoa products in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Germany, and internationally.
Acceptable track record and slightly overvalued.