Fibra UNO Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Last week, you might have seen that Fibra UNO (BMV:FUNO11) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to Mex$30.17 in the past week. Revenues were Mex$26b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at Mex$4.68, an impressive 37% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Fibra UNO after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Fibra UNO

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Fibra UNO's eight analysts is for revenues of Mex$27.4b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 5.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 57% to Mex$2.01 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$27.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$2.57 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at Mex$33.86, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Fibra UNO, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$40.00 and the most bearish at Mex$26.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Fibra UNO's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.1% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.1% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Fibra UNO is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fibra UNO. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Fibra UNO analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Fibra UNO (at least 2 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.