FIBRA Prologis Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Shareholders might have noticed that FIBRA Prologis (BMV:FIBRAPL14) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to Mex$40.90 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of Mex$4.7b were what the analysts expected, FIBRA Prologis surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of Mex$4.41 per share, an impressive 97% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for FIBRA Prologis

Following last week's earnings report, FIBRA Prologis' seven analysts are forecasting 2021 revenues to be Mex$4.68b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 21% to Mex$3.51 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of Mex$5.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$3.54 in 2021. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at Mex$49.78even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values FIBRA Prologis at Mex$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$39.50. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that FIBRA Prologis' revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 0.5% increase next year well below the historical 8.3%p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than FIBRA Prologis.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for FIBRA Prologis going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that FIBRA Prologis is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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