Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Recorded A 15% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

The annual results for Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GMEXICOB) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were US$14b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.44 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 15%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Grupo México. de

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Grupo México. de are now predicting revenues of US$16.0b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 5.4% to US$0.46. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$15.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a nice increase in earnings per share in particular.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of Mex$92.34, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Grupo México. de analyst has a price target of Mex$135 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$41.83. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grupo México. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Grupo México. de's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 8.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Grupo México. de to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Grupo México. de's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Grupo México. de going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Grupo México. de that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.