CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CEMEXCPO) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 11% to Mex$13.13. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$17b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 80% to hit US$0.012 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for CEMEX. de

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering CEMEX. de are now predicting revenues of US$18.1b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 536% to US$0.08. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$18.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.08 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of Mex$16.01, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CEMEX. de at Mex$19.73 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$11.26. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CEMEX. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that CEMEX. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.1% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that CEMEX. de is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$16.01, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple CEMEX. de analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with CEMEX. de , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.