CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CEMEXCPO) Just Reported First-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Investors in CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CEMEXCPO) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at Mex$14.14 following the release of its first-quarter results. CEMEX. de reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$4.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.02, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for CEMEX. de

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for CEMEX. de from ten analysts is for revenues of US$18.2b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 3.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 518% to US$0.09. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$18.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.08 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a substantial gain in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at Mex$16.51, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CEMEX. de at Mex$19.34 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$11.30. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that CEMEX. de's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.9% over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 0.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that CEMEX. de is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards CEMEX. de following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that CEMEX. de's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple CEMEX. de analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with CEMEX. de .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.