As you might know, Quálitas Controladora, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:Q) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with Mex$9.6b revenue coming in 3.1% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$1.80 missed the mark badly, arriving some 39% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Quálitas Controladora. de's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of Mex$43.5b in 2022. This would be a meaningful 13% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 17% to Mex$10.13. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of Mex$41.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$9.66 in 2022. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.
Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of Mex$118, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Quálitas Controladora. de analyst has a price target of Mex$124 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$112. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Quálitas Controladora. de is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Quálitas Controladora. de's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 18% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Quálitas Controladora. de is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Quálitas Controladora. de's earnings potential next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$118, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Quálitas Controladora. de going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Even so, be aware that Quálitas Controladora. de is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.