Results: Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GRUMAB) defied analyst predictions to release its yearly results, which were ahead of market expectations. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.2% to hit US$6.5b. Gruma. de reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$1.43, which was a notable 12% above what the analysts had forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Gruma. de

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering Gruma. de, is for revenues of US$6.10b in 2025. This implies a discernible 6.0% reduction in Gruma. de's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 4.9% to US$1.41 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.44 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the Mex$404 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gruma. de at Mex$460 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$301. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gruma. de is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$404, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gruma. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Gruma. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.