Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:BIMBOA) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.0% to Mex$72.98 in the past week. Revenues of Mex$400b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at Mex$3.50, missing estimates by 7.7%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Grupo Bimbo. de after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Grupo Bimbo. de

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Grupo Bimbo. de's seven analysts is for revenues of Mex$421.8b in 2024. This reflects an okay 5.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 21% to Mex$4.27. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of Mex$428.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$4.37 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at Mex$89.21, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Grupo Bimbo. de, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$110 and the most bearish at Mex$76.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Grupo Bimbo. de shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grupo Bimbo. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Grupo Bimbo. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 8.2% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 6 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Grupo Bimbo. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Grupo Bimbo. de. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$89.21, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Bimbo. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Grupo Bimbo. de analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Grupo Bimbo. de has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.