Carnival Corporation & Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of CCL1 N when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CCL1 N (MX$510) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (MX$1163.67)

Is CCL1 N undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CCL1 N when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CCL1 N (MX$510) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$1163.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CCL1 N is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CCL1 N?

Key metric: As CCL1 N is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CCL1 N. This is calculated by dividing CCL1 N's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CCL1 N's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	20.7x
Earnings	US$1.57b
Market Cap	US$32.50b

CCL1 N key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.4x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CCL1 N's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CCL1 N vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.7x
RLH A RLH Properties. de	30.9x	n/a	Mex$18.4b
HOTEL * Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe. de	36.5x	35.6%	Mex$2.9b
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises	25x	18.9%	US$63.9b
HCITY * Hoteles City Express. de	18.4x	45.5%	Mex$1.9b
CCL1 N Carnival Corporation &	20.7x	19.8%	Mex$32.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CCL1 N is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the peer average (27.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CCL1 N's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Hospitality Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CCL1 N is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the South American Hospitality industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CCL1 N's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CCL1 N PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.7x
Fair PE Ratio	29.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CCL1 N is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CCL1 N forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Mex$510.00	Mex$506.16 -0.8%	14.3%	Mex$573.10	Mex$284.42	n/a	21
Nov ’25	Mex$441.29	Mex$489.80 +11.0%	15.5%	Mex$562.64	Mex$279.23	n/a	21
Oct ’25	Mex$363.14	Mex$458.71 +26.3%	15.3%	Mex$549.17	Mex$274.58	n/a	20
Sep ’25	Mex$321.00	Mex$435.02 +35.5%	15.6%	Mex$539.98	Mex$250.71	n/a	22
Aug ’25	Mex$295.00	Mex$412.98 +40.0%	16.3%	Mex$514.18	Mex$238.73	n/a	22
Jul ’25	Mex$328.00	Mex$414.09 +26.2%	16.8%	Mex$515.52	Mex$239.35	n/a	20
Jun ’25	Mex$252.01	Mex$360.58 +43.1%	17.1%	Mex$474.80	Mex$220.44	n/a	22
May ’25	Mex$256.26	Mex$367.74 +43.5%	16.5%	Mex$479.32	Mex$222.54	n/a	22
Apr ’25	Mex$268.00	Mex$361.07 +34.7%	15.6%	Mex$457.17	Mex$216.11	n/a	21
Mar ’25	Mex$272.50	Mex$357.84 +31.3%	17.9%	Mex$469.33	Mex$221.87	n/a	21
Feb ’25	Mex$288.00	Mex$360.23 +25.1%	18.3%	Mex$473.99	Mex$224.07	n/a	20
Jan ’25	Mex$315.60	Mex$352.92 +11.8%	21.7%	Mex$424.51	Mex$118.86	n/a	19
Dec ’24	Mex$269.96	Mex$307.46 +13.9%	23.9%	Mex$429.99	Mex$120.40	n/a	21
Nov ’24	Mex$200.00	Mex$328.24 +64.1%	23.6%	Mex$454.20	Mex$127.18	Mex$441.29	21
Oct ’24	Mex$239.67	Mex$320.64 +33.8%	24.9%	Mex$435.78	Mex$122.02	Mex$363.14	20
Sep ’24	Mex$269.10	Mex$308.30 +14.6%	25.0%	Mex$419.00	Mex$117.32	Mex$321.00	20
Aug ’24	Mex$303.00	Mex$308.30 +1.8%	25.4%	Mex$422.15	Mex$118.20	Mex$295.00	19
Jul ’24	Mex$322.00	Mex$299.59 -7.0%	25.6%	Mex$427.99	Mex$119.84	Mex$328.00	17
Jun ’24	Mex$208.27	Mex$216.63 +4.0%	29.3%	Mex$388.52	Mex$120.09	Mex$252.01	18
May ’24	Mex$159.07	Mex$213.68 +34.3%	31.0%	Mex$395.56	Mex$122.26	Mex$256.26	19
Apr ’24	Mex$183.43	Mex$215.10 +17.3%	32.7%	Mex$396.49	Mex$122.55	Mex$268.00	17
Mar ’24	Mex$191.73	Mex$217.18 +13.3%	32.8%	Mex$416.62	Mex$128.77	Mex$272.50	19
Feb ’24	Mex$210.75	Mex$213.96 +1.5%	32.9%	Mex$414.25	Mex$128.04	Mex$288.00	19
Jan ’24	Mex$155.90	Mex$219.10 +40.5%	36.8%	Mex$428.25	Mex$116.79	Mex$315.60	18
Dec ’23	Mex$192.00	Mex$241.49 +25.8%	55.7%	Mex$692.44	Mex$115.41	Mex$269.96	20
Nov ’23	Mex$178.69	Mex$242.55 +35.7%	60.0%	Mex$709.92	Mex$118.32	Mex$200.00	18

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.