Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CHDRAUIB) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.4% to Mex$131 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at Mex$1.51, some 32% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at Mex$72b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's eleven analysts is for revenues of Mex$306.8b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 25% to Mex$9.99. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of Mex$306.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$10.02 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at Mex$156. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$180 and the most bearish at Mex$125 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 9.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this to the 6 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.